RESEARCH NOTES
Gold Plunges 26% Yet Central Banks Buy 289 Tons… The Gold Price Outlook Is Unsettled
Based on the LBMA afternoon fixing price, gold fell approximately 26% from $5,405 on January 29 to $4,001.80 on June 25. The BIS analyzed that leveraged products, margins, and position liquidation amplified price volatility during the sharp decline in late January. While 45 tons flowed out of gold ETFs in the second quarter, central banks net-purchased 288.9 tons, the highest ever for the second quarter. The Bank of Korea has established a framework to purchase domestically produced gold, which must be distinguished from the actual completion of domestic physical gold purchases. Recently, the gold market has been complexly influenced by interest rate paths, reserve asset diversification, and geopolitical uncertainties rather than inflation itself.

From $5,405 to the $4,000 Range: Three Economic Signals Sent by the Correction Phase International gold prices, which had been rising steeply, have undergone a significant correction this year. The LBMA afternoon fixing price, used as a key benchmark by the World Gold Council (WGC), climbed to $5,405 per ounce on January 29 before falling to $4,001.80 on June 25. The adjustment from the peak is approximately 26%. Although prices have since rebounded, the amplitude of the rise and fall seen in the first half of the year makes it difficult to view the gold market merely as a fluctuation in safe-haven asset prices. The movement of gold prices simultaneously reflects not only the inflow and liquidation of short-term investment funds but also interest rate outlooks in the U.S. and other major economies, the value of the dollar, reserve asset management by central banks, and geopolitical uncer…
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