South Koreans Drink 416 Cups of Coffee Per Capita Annually... The Current State of the 'Coffee Republic' and Key Market Watchpoints for 2026
Consumption Exceeds Twice the Global Average, Import Value Surpasses 2 Trillion Won for the First Time... Number of Cafes Decreases for the First Time Since Statistics Began

South Koreans' love for coffee is proven by statistics. According to market research firm Euromonitor, South Korea's annual per capita coffee consumption stood at 405 cups as of 2023, approximately 2.7 times the global annual per capita coffee consumption (152 cups) at the time. In 2024, it was tallied at 416 cups. This is the highest level in the Asia-Pacific region. Converted to a daily average, it means each South Korean drinks about 1.1 cups of coffee. Considering that the United States' per capita annual consumption was 318 cups (2023) on the same basis, South Korea ranks at the very top among major coffee-consuming nations.

However, the South Korean coffee market as of 2026 appears to have moved past a simple quantitative growth stage and entered a structural transition period. Coffee import values exceeded 2 trillion won in terms of Korean won for the first time ever due to the overlapping effects of surging green coffee bean prices and a rising exchange rate. Conversely, the number of coffee shops nationwide turned downward for the first time since relevant statistics began to be compiled. While consumption remains at a world-leading level, the consumption methods—such as 'where, at what price, and how it is consumed'—are being rapidly reorganized.

416 Cups Per Capita Annually... 2.7 Times the Global Average

Looking at the long-term trend of per capita coffee consumption domestically, according to a survey by the Hyundai Research Institute, the annual consumption per adult aged 20 or older was 353 cups in 2018. Subsequently, Euromonitor figures recorded 405 cups in 2023 and 416 cups in 2024. Simply substituting the two figures means an average annual increase of about 2.8% from 2018 to 2023, but because the survey institutions and population base calculation criteria differ, it is more accurate to interpret this as a reference figure showing the overall upward trend rather than directly comparing absolute values. Coffee's status in the domestic beverage market is also overwhelming. According to the Ministry of Food and Drug Safety's domestic sales statistics by beverage category (2022), coffee accounts for 30.8% of the total beverage market, surpassing carbonated drinks (25.5%). Given that carbonated drinks are the best-selling beverages globally, South Korea is an exceptional market where coffee is the largest category in the beverage market.

The base of coffee consumption is also broadening. According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs, the number of domestic coffee shops nearly doubled over six years from 51,551 in 2016 to surpass 100,000 for the first time at 100,729 in 2022, and was counted at 107,055 in 2024. Coffee shop workers reached approximately 293,100 in 2024, nearly double the 152,500 in 2016. Coffee shops' share of the entire dining-out industry also expanded from 9.3% in 2018 to 13.4% in 2023. This means 1 out of every 7 dining-out establishments is a coffee shop.

The market size has also grown steadily. According to a coffee industry analysis released in August 2026 by the Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs and the Korea Rural Economic Institute, the size of the coffee industry—combining domestic sales and exports of domestic coffee products—stood at 3.7359 trillion won as of 2024, a 35.6% growth compared to 2018. This figure is based on sales of coffee products such as coffee beans and formulated coffee, while cafe store sales are tracked separately. The average annual growth rate over the past six years has been 5.2%, establishing it as one of the fastest-growing sectors within the food industry. In detail, the 'roasted coffee' market, including coffee beans, grew by an annual average of 15.8% over six years to 1.3225 trillion won in 2024. In contrast, the 'formulated coffee' market, such as mix coffee that previously dominated the market, decreased by an annual average of 0.5% over the same period, showing a shift in the core axis of consumption. According to app and retail analysis service WiseApp·Retail, the combined estimated payment amount of major coffee brands in April 2026 was 1.019 trillion won, growing 32% over the past three years. This signifies that coffee has established itself as a core item of daily consumption, with monthly payments exceeding 1 trillion won.

Caution is required when making international comparisons. Because Euromonitor's 'annual cup count' and the 'green coffee bean consumption-converted daily cup count' from coffee data platforms like Cappelli and Visual Capitalist use different calculation methods, direct comparisons of absolute rankings are difficult. Looking merely as a reference index, in the daily average coffee consumption per capita by country for 2025 compiled based on Cappelli's data, Luxembourg ranked first with 5.31 cups per day, followed by Northern European countries such as Finland (3.77 cups) and Sweden (2.59 cups). All top 10 countries were European, while the United States ranked 24th with a daily average of 1.22 cups, and South Korea was classified in the middle tier at around 1 cup per day.

Coffee Import Value Surpasses 2 Trillion Won for the First Time... Volume Remains Flat

Another core indicator to gauge the scale of coffee consumption is import performance. Because South Korea relies heavily on coffee bean imports, import statistics serve as a major indicator showing domestic coffee supply, demand, and cost trends. According to aT compilations, South Korea's coffee import value in 2025 rose 35% year-on-year to $1.861 billion. In Korean won terms, it increased 41% year-on-year to approximately 2.65 trillion won, surpassing 2 trillion won for the first time ever. The growth rate in Korean won terms was higher than in dollar terms because the average KRW-USD exchange rate in 2025 (1,422.22 won) rose significantly compared to the previous year (1,363.98 won).

A notable point is that while the import value surged, the import volume remained virtually flat. The coffee import weight in 2025 was 215,792 tons, a decrease of 46 tons from the previous year. In other words, the surge in import value was the result of soaring international green coffee bean prices, not an increase in consumption volume. According to the Bank of Korea's Economic Statistics System, as of November 2025, the coffee import price index (2020=100) was 307.12 in dollar terms and 379.71 in Korean won terms. This means it jumped about 3-fold over five years in dollar terms reflecting only international market increases, and about 3.8-fold in Korean won terms when adding the exchange rate rise. In the actual New York futures market, Arabica coffee bean prices broke $4 per pound for the first time in February 2025, peaking at $4.23 per pound in November 2025.

International coffee bean prices in 2026 continue to experience a fluctuating market with multiple direction changes. As expectations for a bumper crop in major producing regions grow—such as Brazil's agricultural supply agency Conab forecasting the 2026/27 coffee harvest at 66.7 million bags (1 bag = 60kg, based on the June 2026 USDA report)—Arabica futures prices fell more than 30% from their previous peak to about $2.8 per pound as of February 2026. However, entering August, concerns highlighted that Brazil's actual harvesting and shipping speeds were slower than usual, pushing New York futures Arabica prices back up to fluctuate in the low $3 range per pound as of the first week of August. As bean prices have entered a volatile phase of declines and rebounds, the industry's general explanation is that it requires further observation, taking into account inventory depletion and time lags in contract structures, to see in which direction this will be reflected in domestic consumer prices.

Looking back at the growth trajectory of coffee imports, the speed of market expansion is clear at a glance. According to the Korea Customs Service, coffee (green and roasted beans) import values increased every year from $660 million in 2019 to $740 million in 2020, and $920 million in 2021, before crossing the $1 billion mark for the first time at $1.3 billion in 2022. Over the same period, import volumes increased from 170,000 tons to 202,000 tons (182,000 tons of green beans and 21,000 tons of roasted beans). The spread of working from home during COVID-19 led to a home-cafe culture that drove up imports, and after social distancing was lifted, demand expanded again with the normalization of store operations. The fact that import values swelled about 2.8 times over the six years from 2019 to 2025 while import volume growth was much more modest shows that the core driver of recent surging import values is not that people are 'drinking more,' but that coffee has 'become more expensive.'

K-Coffee Exports Also Grow... Israel Emerges as the Largest Market

Despite its import-dependent structure, South Korea's coffee industry is achieving meaningful results in exports. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs and the Korea Rural Economic Institute, coffee-related product exports in 2024 amounted to $229.6 million, up 4.6% from the previous year. While instant coffee accounted for 98% of the 35,349 tons exported, exports of 'roasted coffee beans,' combining roasting technology, have been growing rapidly. As of May 2025, roasted bean exports surged 46.8% compared to the same month of the previous year.

Changes have also appeared in the composition of export destination countries. Overtaking China, which had been the undisputed number one until 2022, Israel has emerged as South Korea's largest coffee export market starting in 2023. Based on 2024 export values, the shares were Israel at 18.1%, China at 15.4%, Australia at 7.1%, the Philippines at 6.5%, and Chile at 5.7%. The Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs explained that alongside expanding overseas demand for premium coffee beans, South Korea is emerging as a 'test bed' where global coffee brands verify marketability prior to entering East Asia.

Fractures in the Era of 100,000 Cafes... First Decline Since Statistics Began

On the supply side, signs of market saturation are clear. According to the National Tax Service's National Tax Statistics Portal, the number of coffee and beverage stores nationwide stood at 95,337 as of the first quarter of 2025, a decrease of 743 from the same period of the previous year. This is the first time the number of coffee and beverage stores has declined since the statistics began to be compiled in 2018. The numerical difference between the Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs standard (107,055 stores in 2024) and the National Tax Service standard (95,337 stores in Q1 2025) is due to differences in statistical compilation methods and business classification criteria. However, the nature of both statistics must be distinguished. While National Tax Service business statistics showed an actual shift to a decline, the Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs standard continued an upward trend compared to the previous year in 2024. Viewing it as a phase of 'stagnation in growth' is a more accurate interpretation.

Profitability indicators are also worsening. Based on National Tax Service statistics, the survival rate of coffee shops as of 2023 was merely 83.5% one year after opening, 53.2% after three years, and 34.6% after five years. This means 2 out of 3 cafes fail to last five years. According to Fair Trade Commission franchise business statistics compilations, the number of coffee franchise stores grew 4.0% year-on-year to 29,101 in 2024, but the new store opening rate was 16.5% and the closure rate reached 9.3% that same year. The number of coffee franchise brands increased 8.2% to 921 in 2025, intensifying competition further. The discrepancy between sales and profitability is becoming more pronounced. According to the Fair Trade Commission's 2025 franchise business status statistics, the average sales of coffee franchise stores in 2024 were 254 million won, up 8.3% from the previous year, but average operating profit per store actually decreased by 1.13 million won. The average differential franchise fee paid by franchisees to headquarters increased 18.2% from 22 million won to 26 million won, raising its share of sales from 6.8% to 7.3%. In other words, even if sales increase, headquarters supply margins and cost burdens grow faster than that, reducing the actual share kept by franchisees.

In the same statistics, the top brands by number of franchise stores were Mega MGC Coffee (3,325), Compose Coffee (2,649), Ediya Coffee (2,562), Paik's Coffee (1,712), and A Twosome Place (1,510), in that order. Budget coffee franchises hitting growth limits in the domestic market are turning their eyes overseas. Major brands such as Ediya Coffee, The Venti, and Paik's Coffee are expanding overseas stores centering on regions with thick Hallyu consumer bases, such as Malaysia, Mongolia, Vietnam, Singapore, and Japan.

Low barriers to entry for startups are cited as the structural background behind the saturation of the cafe market. Because openings are possible with small capital, self-employed startup demand flocked to coffee shops, and with the aggressive opening of budget brands overlapping, a phenomenon where three or four cafes are crowded into a single building or commercial district has become common. The industry diagnoses that in this process, independent cafes with lower price competitiveness are being squeezed out first. Because costs such as raw material costs, labor costs, and rent increase faster than rising sales, worsening per-store profitability, experts point out that one must examine per-store profitability and cost structures together rather than store counts or top-line sales.

Domino Coffee Price Hikes... Consumption Shifts to 'Homes and Convenience Stores'

With overlapping increases in bean prices, labor costs, and rent, coffee prices felt by consumers have also risen rapidly. Based on the Consumer Price Trends in August 2025, dining-out coffee prices rose 5.6% compared to the same month of the previous year, more than triple the overall consumer price inflation rate (1.7%). Starbucks Korea raised prices for short and tall size beverages by 200 won each in January 2025, bringing a tall-size americano to 4,700 won, and A Twosome Place adjusted its prices to the same level. Budget brands also joined the price hike parade, with Mega MGC Coffee raising the hot americano from 1,500 won to 1,700 won in April 2025. However, the iced americano—the item most sought after by consumers—kept its existing price of 2,000 won frozen, despite having a roughly 20% larger volume (24oz) than competitors. Compose Coffee raised the price of an iced americano by 300 won from 1,500 won to 1,800 won.

However, entering 2026, overall inflation pressures show signs of settling down somewhat. According to the National Statistics Office, the consumer price index in July 2026 rose 2.8% compared to the same month of the previous year, showing a narrower increase than the previous month (3.2%), and dining-out prices rose only 2.6% compared to the same month of the previous year, appearing calmer than the upward trend of 2025. Still, this is the price trend of the dining-out industry as a whole, and at the individual brand level, separate price adjustments continue due to exchange rates, bean prices, and brand image issues.

As the price burden grows, consumption behaviors are also tending to shift. A trend is observed where the 'habitual cup' previously enjoyed at cafes is moving to homes, offices, and convenience stores. As the home-cafe culture that spread after COVID-19 regains momentum amid high inflation, the roasted coffee (ground coffee) market has recorded a high annual average growth rate of 17.4% since 2018. Conversely, the formulated coffee (mix coffee) market containing sugar and creamer contracted by 16.6% in 2021 compared to 2018. Demand for 1,000-to-2,000-won convenience store drip coffee and cup coffee is also known to be increasing rapidly. Coupled with the health trend of moderating caffeine intake, demand for decaffeinated coffee beans is also steadily expanding.

Entering 2026, variables have also emerged in the landscape between brands. In May, Starbucks Korea became embroiled in controversy over marketing phrases related to the May 18 Gwangju Democratization Movement, spreading a nationwide boycott movement. According to IGAWorks Mobile Index compilations, Starbucks' estimated weekly payment amount immediately after the controversy (May 18–24) was 23.69 billion won, down 26.3% from the previous week (May 11–17, 32.16 billion won), and it also relinquished its top spot as a popular gift on KakaoTalk Gift for the first time in 7 years. In a survey of estimated credit card payment amounts at coffee shops in early summer 2026, Starbucks' performance was also calculated to have dropped 32.4% year-on-year. Amidst this, the possibility of some consumers shifting brands is being discussed in the industry. Around the same time, The Venti raised prices for select items such as Vanilla Deep Latte and Icheon Rice Latte by 100 to 500 won starting in late June, and Mega MGC Coffee also previewed additional price adjustments. However, the industry explains these not as directly linked to the Starbucks controversy, but as adjustments responding to complex cost pressures such as exchange rates, bean prices, and logistics costs.

Ultimately, evaluations suggest that South Korea's coffee market is moving from a stage of 'drinking more' to a stage of 'drinking more diversely and more reasonably.' A polarized structure is solidifying where premium demand represented by specialty coffee and practical demand represented by budget coffee and home cafes grow simultaneously.

Changes in coffee consumption methods are also leading to a redefined role for cafes. While habitual weekday cups are being handled at home or in the office, the value of a cafe as a 'space' to spend time and meet people rather than simply a place that sells coffee is being highlighted. This is the result of working routines of stopping by cafes every day on the commute weakening due to the expansion of remote and hybrid work, coupled with cost calculations showing that consumers can drink two or three cups or more at home for the price of buying one outside. As consumer selection criteria subdivide into specialty demand prioritizing bean varieties, origins, and roasting methods, and practical demand prioritizing price, the fortunes of different business sectors are diverging even within the same coffee market.

Outlook: Consumption is Robust, the Key is Pricing and Restructuring

The watchpoints for the South Korean coffee market in the second half of 2026 can be summarized into three points. First, how fluctuating international coffee bean prices will be reflected in domestic consumer prices. Because the downward trend at the beginning of the year rebounded in August due to concerns over supply disruptions in Brazil, the possibility that cost burdens will grow again cannot be ruled out. Second, whether the decrease in the number of cafes is a temporary adjustment or the beginning of a structural contraction. Amid ongoing competition for store openings centered on budget franchises, the possibility of deepening polarization where independent cafe closures and declining franchise profitability overlap is being raised. Third, whether the consumer brand-switching possibility discussed in the industry following the May Starbucks-related controversy will lead to actual market share changes or remain a temporary phenomenon.

What is clear is that South Koreans' coffee consumption itself, exceeding 400 cups per capita annually, remains unshaken. While the total volume of consumption is maintained robustly, only the locations and price points where those cups are placed are changing. This is why the nickname 'Coffee Republic' remains valid and why the competitive structure of the coffee industry has become fiercer than ever.