In the metropolitan apartment market facing the Han River, the pace of supply is slow, while the pace of monthly rent prices is running fast.
Executive Summary
As of 2026, the metropolitan apartment monthly rent market is not simply in a price adjustment phase, but is passing through a structural turning point where the paradigm of the lease market itself is changing.
Looking at the core figures first, the proportion of monthly rent in nationwide housing leases recorded an all-time high of 66.8% as of January 2026.
This is a sharp surge of 21.2 percentage points in just four years from 45.6% in 2022. Metropolitan apartment monthly rent prices rose 8.0% in December 2025 compared to the same month of the previous year, and monthly rent transaction volume itself increased by 42.5% year-on-year. On the other hand, jeonse (lump-sum deposit lease) transactions decreased by 3.6% over the same period.
The supply side is even more severe. Metropolitan apartment move-in volumes plummeted by 38.1% in two years, dropping from 171,796 households in 2024 to 106,305 households in 2026. In the case of Seoul, the volume of housing construction starts in January 2026 was only 741 households, down 92.6% from the same period last year. This is virtually equivalent to a standstill in new supply.
The conclusion can be condensed into three points.
First, while monthly rent listings have increased, the supply cliff is actually making high-quality rental properties scarce.
Second, upward pressure on metropolitan apartment monthly rent prices is expected to continue until before 2028, when supply normalization is anticipated.
Third, this is not a temporary market overheating, but a structural transition where the three axes of supply, demand, and policy are intertwined simultaneously, making it difficult to resolve with short-term measures alone.
Monthly Rent Transitions from an 'Exception' to the 'Standard'
The topography of South Korea's housing lease market is changing rapidly. Jeonse has long maintained its position as a uniquely Korean lease method, but as of the spring of 2026, its status is shaking.
Synthesizing the latest statistics announced by major data institutions such as the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport's actual transaction price system, the Korea Real Estate Board, and KB Real Estate, it is clearly confirmed that the proportion and price of monthly rent in the metropolitan apartment lease market are rising steeply at the same time.
As of January 2026, nationwide monthly rent transactions (including semi-jeonse with deposits) stood at 169,305 cases, a 42.5% increase year-on-year, whereas jeonse transactions decreased by 3.6% to 84,105 cases.
This single figure clearly reveals where the central axis of the current lease market is heading. Until just a few years ago, jeonse and monthly rent coexisted with a certain degree of balance, but now that balance is collapsing.
This article systematically analyzes the supply trends, price fluctuation trends, structural backgrounds, regional differentiation phenomena, and future outlook of the metropolitan (Seoul, Gyeonggi, Incheon) apartment monthly rent market as of April 1, 2026.
By cross-verifying official government statistics and private data such as KB and Real Estate R114, it sheds light on the actual state of the current market with the highest possible accuracy.
1. Proportion of Monthly Rent Breaks All-Time Highs Consecutively
The change in the proportion of monthly rent in the lease market is not a short-term phenomenon.
According to the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport's actual transaction data (based on new national housing lease contracts, including monthly rent with deposits and semi-jeonse), the trend of the proportion of monthly rent transaction volume by year has risen steadily every year: 43.3% in 2021, 51.8% in 2022, 54.8% in 2023, 57.4% in 2024, and 62.7% in 2025.
Then in January 2026, the proportion of monthly rent under the same criteria rose to 66.8%, breaking the all-time high. The proportion of monthly rent, which stood at just 45.6% in 2022, surged by 21.2 percentage points in four years. This is not simply a numerical increase, but signifies a structural shift in which the dominant form of lease contracts is converting from jeonse to monthly rent.
Looking at Seoul apartments separately, the situation is even more compressed. As instability in the apartment lease market persisted, the proportion of monthly rent among apartment jeonse and monthly rent listings increased rapidly entering 2025, reaching 47.8% in December 2025 in Seoul. In other words, nearly half of the newly released apartment lease listings in Seoul have already been converted to monthly rent.
2. Structural Monthly Rentization Caused by the Supply Cliff
The primary cause of the expansion of monthly rent should be sought on the supply side rather than the demand side. The entire lease market is shaken as apartment move-in volumes themselves plummet.
Metropolitan move-in volumes dropped sharply by 38.1% in two years, from 171,796 households in 2024 to 131,956 households in 2025, and 106,305 households in 2026 (based on estimates by Real Estate R114 and the Korea Construction Industry Research Institute). Just looking at these figures, one can see how rapidly housing supply in the metropolitan area is contracting.
The extent of regional decline is also pronounced. Seoul is projected to drop by about 26%, from 37,178 households in 2025 to 27,620 households in 2026.
Gyeonggi Province is expected to decrease by about 10% from 74,760 households to 67,115 households over the same period, and Incheon is also expected to contract by about 14% from 20,093 households to 17,329 households (based on Real Estate R114 estimates).
The supply cliff is not only appearing in new move-in volumes. Housing permits nationwide in January 2026 stood at 16,531 households, down 83.9% from the previous month and 26.4% from the same period last year. In particular, metropolitan permits shrank by 42.9% year-on-year to 8,636 households, deepening the supply contraction.
Completion performance also plummeted by 46.5% year-on-year to 22,340 households, making future shortages of move-in volumes visible.
The situation in Seoul is even more extreme. Housing construction starts in Seoul in January 2026 stopped at 741 households, a steep 92.6% drop compared to the same period last year (10,050 households).
This is virtually equivalent to a halt in the supply of new apartments in Seoul. Scheduled move-in volumes for nationwide apartments in March 2026 plunged by about 65% year-on-year to 9,597 households (compared to 27,251 households in the same month last year).
3. Price Trends — How Much Have Monthly Rents Risen?
Overall Metropolitan Area
Prices are rising concurrently with the increase in monthly rent listings. The fact that these two phenomena occur simultaneously is harsher from the tenants' perspective.
Due to the increase in semi-jeonse conversions following rising jeonse deposits and the continuous influx of 1- and 2-person households, metropolitan apartment monthly rent prices rose 8.0% in December 2025 compared to the same month of the previous year (based on the KB Real Estate Monthly Rent Price Index).
According to the KB Real Estate Data Hub, as of March 2026, the nationwide apartment jeonse price index rose 0.13% week-on-week, and Seoul rose 0.24%, maintaining a steady upward trend. As jeonse prices rise, tenants' demand to convert to monthly rent grows further, which in turn fuels a vicious cycle pushing up monthly rent prices.
Metropolitan jeonse prices continued an expanding upward trend, rising 0.10% as of the 4th week of March 2026.
Comparison with Officetel Monthly Rents
Unlike rising apartment monthly rent prices, the officetel market varies by region. In December 2025, officetel monthly rent prices rose 1.8% year-on-year in Seoul, whereas Gyeonggi fell 1.2% and Incheon fell 3.0%. This pattern differs from the uniform rise of the apartment monthly rent market across the entire metropolitan area, which is interpreted as a reflection of tenants' tendency to prefer apartments over officetels.
4. In-Depth Regional Analysis
Seoul — Intensifying Pressure in Core Demand Areas
Seoul is the region where the supply cliff appears most severely. With move-in volumes shrinking to 27,620 households in 2026 and new construction starts virtually halting, price pressure on existing rental properties is inevitable.
Due to the October 15 measures designating all 25 districts of Seoul and 12 regions in Gyeonggi as regulated areas (speculation-overheated districts and adjustment target areas) and land transaction permit zones, 'gap investments' involving leases have been fundamentally blocked in these areas, causing jeonse listings to plummet and accelerating the conversion of jeonse to monthly rent.
Particularly in core locations such as Gangnam, Mapo, Yongsan, and Seongdong-gu, landlords have developed a stronger preference for monthly rent over jeonse. This is because expectations for interest rate cuts have weakened, spreading the judgment that direct monthly rental income is more advantageous than interest earnings obtained by operating jeonse deposits.
Gyeonggi Province — Polarization Following Wide-Area Transit Networks
Gyeonggi Province has the largest move-in volume in the entire metropolitan area, but this is also on a declining trend. Even within Gyeonggi Province, a monthly rent price gap is widening between areas through which GTX lines pass or where 3rd-generation new towns are planned (Goyang, Namyangju, Hanam, Hwaseong, etc.) and outer areas without them.
According to LH, main subscriptions totaling 3,647 households will take place in April 2026 across areas including the 3rd-generation new towns such as Goyang Changreung S-01 district, Namyangju Wangsuk 2 A01 and A03 districts, and Incheon Gyeyang A9 district, as well as Siheung Hajung, Incheon Gajeong 2, and Pyeongtaek Godeok districts. While supply is temporarily concentrated in some parts of Gyeonggi Province, experts share the consensus that this falls short of resolving the structural supply shortage.
Incheon — Structural Vulnerability Centered on Yeongjong and Cheongna
Incheon is the region among the three metropolitan cities and provinces where officetels experienced the largest drop in monthly rent. Incheon officetel monthly rents fell 3.0% year-on-year. However, apartment monthly rents are facing upward pressure similar to Seoul and Gyeonggi. In particular, large-scale new towns such as Incheon Yeongjong International City and Cheongna International City are projected to see price increases for existing monthly rental properties due to anticipated reductions in move-in volumes.
5. The Rise of Semi-Jeonse — A Third Choice That Is Neither Jeonse Nor Monthly Rent
Another phenomenon to watch closely in this market change is the rapid spread of 'semi-jeonse' (monthly rent with a deposit). Semi-jeonse is an intermediate form between jeonse and pure monthly rent, where tenants put down a certain level of deposit and pay a fixed amount every month.
The increase in semi-jeonse conversions resulting from rising jeonse deposits acts as one of the main drivers leading the rise of the metropolitan apartment monthly rent market. Interests are aligning as tenants find it difficult to raise the full amount of increased jeonse deposits and thus choose semi-jeonse, while landlords prefer semi-jeonse to secure fixed monthly income.
This is not simply a change in contract format. It means that tenants' monthly housing cost burdens are structurally increasing. Some point out that considering the opportunity cost of capital tied up in deposits, costs could actually be greater than pure jeonse.
6. Changes in Rental Demand Structure — Expansion of 1- and 2-Person Households
As a demand-side cause of the expansion of the monthly rent market, the continuous increase of 1- and 2-person households cannot be left out. The continuous influx of 1- and 2-person households is acting as a core factor driving up metropolitan apartment monthly rent prices.
According to Statistics Korea's long-term projections, the proportion of 1-person households is continuing to increase, and most of them use small apartments or small-to-medium residential facilities as monthly rentals. In particular, new rental demand is steadily increasing, including youth in their 20s and 30s, middle-aged and older adults who have become independent due to divorce or bereavement, and foreign workers and international students.
They lack the assets to prepare jeonse deposits, or even if they have them, they tend to prefer monthly rent due to fears of jeonse fraud. The memory of the 'jeonse fraud' incidents that delivered a social shock from 2022 to 2023 still impacts market sentiment, serving as one of the backgrounds accelerating the shift to monthly rent.
7. Limitations of Government Policies and Market Reactions
The government also recognizes this issue and is stepping up to respond.
President Lee Jae-myung emphasized supplying 7,500 households this year during a senior secretaries meeting on February 26, 2026, stating, "Dragging our feet on creating metropolitan public housing sites like 3rd-generation new towns is the same as doing nothing." However, experts' evaluations are cold. Real Estate experts advise, "With the current pace of supply, it is difficult to avoid the 2026 move-in cliff, and a strategy to secure lease listings in advance is needed in preparation for the expansion of the monthly rent market."
Nam Hyuk-woo, a real estate researcher at Woori Bank, anticipated, "The metropolitan area is entering a period of full-scale move-in drought. Because even listings supplied to the lease market through gap investments are limited, price volatility in the jeonse and monthly rent markets and tenants' housing cost burdens will grow even greater."
Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon expressed concerns along the same lines. He criticized, "Policies that suppress and constrict supply are not sustainable in the long run. Government measures usually only have an effect for about 2 to 3 months."
Changes in market sentiment are also noteworthy. According to a survey conducted by Gallup Korea of 1,001 adults aged 18 and older nationwide from March 3 to 5, 2026, 46% responded that home prices will 'fall'. Responses that prices will 'rise' stood at 29%, showing a 17 percentage point gap.
The expansion of wait-and-see sentiment in the sales market paradoxically acts as a factor that increases rental demand and further pressures the monthly rent market. The longer demanders waiting without buying a home stay in the rental market, the more severe the rental property shortage phenomenon inevitably becomes.
Meanwhile, according to the Korea Housing & Urban Guarantee Corporation (HUG), pre-sale prices of private apartments in the metropolitan area rose by more than 12% in December 2025 compared to the previous year. Rising pre-sale prices directly result in lifting the baseline jeonse and monthly rent prices of newly moving-in apartments themselves.
8. Correlation Between Move-In Volume and Monthly Rent Prices
A clear inverse correlation exists between supply (move-in volume) and monthly rent prices. The basic principle that prices rise when supply decreases is operating without exception in the monthly rent market as well.
As new apartment move-in volumes plummet, housing available for jeonse decreases, and when existing jeonse contracts expire, jeonse prices surge significantly or situations arise where jeonse cannot be found at all.
Landlords' preference for monthly rent and the shortage of jeonse listings are intersecting to accelerate the transition from jeonse to monthly rent, which increases tenants' fixed monthly expenditures and exacerbates household burdens.
Particularly near redevelopment and reconstruction areas, overlapping relocation demand makes the monthly rent listing shortage even more pronounced. Once relocation begins after the establishment of a reconstruction association, rental properties in the area vanish all at once, and a pattern of surrounding monthly rents surging in a short period is repeated.
9. Outlook Beyond April 2026
The move-in cliff and structural reorganization of the monthly rent market that have already begun are difficult to reverse in a short period. Let us examine four core variables.