Q1 Job Openings and Hires Increased, But Second-Half Hiring Plans Fall Below Worker Shortages for the First Time Since Statistics Began: Not the 'Total Volume of Postings,' But the 'Structure of Postings' is Changing

"Job postings have completely dried up." This is one of the most frequently seen sentences in employment communities during the first half of 2026. Complaints continue that even after refreshing job platforms, no positions worth applying for can be found. Yet, looking at government statistics reveals unexpected figures. In the first quarter of this year, companies' job openings and actual hires actually increased compared to last year. Are job postings really decreasing, or are they increasing? Superimposing official statistics and private job platform data released as of July 10 suggests that the answer is closer to a "reorganization of structure" rather than a simple increase or decrease.

Q1 Job Openings Increased... But Second-Half Plans Are Frozen to a Record Extent

According to the "Survey on Labor Conditions by Establishment for the First Half of 2026" released by the Ministry of Employment and Labor on June 30, 2026, job openings at establishments with one or more workers in the first quarter of this year reached 1.464 million, an increase of 48,000 (3.4%) compared to the same period last year. Actual hires also increased by 60,000 (4.6%) to 1.368 million. This means that the postings themselves by companies looking for people clearly showed an upward trend until the early part of the year. Fields where job openings and hires particularly increased included health and social welfare, construction, and business facility management, while by occupation, the growth in care services and construction/mining sectors was distinct.

The problem is future plans. In the same survey, business hiring plans for the second and third quarters of this year stood at 460,000, a decrease of 9,000 (1.8%) from the same period last year. This is the lowest level since the survey in the first half of 2021 during the COVID-19 pandemic. A more symbolic point lies elsewhere. The number of worker shortages—determined by companies as additionally necessary for normal management—was tallied at 467,000, with hiring plans falling short of this by 7,000. Typically, a company's hiring plans are generally higher than worker shortages, but for the first time since relevant statistics began to be compiled under current standards in 2021, the two figures have reversed. This means the number of companies that chose not to hire despite knowing they lacked personnel has increased correspondingly. The Labor Market Research Division of the Ministry of Employment and Labor explained that uncertainties regarding the second and third quarters, such as the Middle East war, were reflected, causing companies' hiring plans to decrease and the figures to reverse.

To summarize: performance indicators up to the first half of this year (job openings and hires) increased, but planning indicators toward the second half (hiring plans) dropped to the most conservative level since statistics began. This marks the first time official statistics have confirmed signals that while job postings have been maintained "until now," they are highly likely to narrow "moving forward."

The Story Changes When Looking Only at Entry-Level Postings… Large Corporation Regular Entry-Level Postings Plummet 43%

Apart from the total volume of job openings, the reality of the "job posting drought" felt by job seekers is clearly evident in entry-level hiring postings. According to a comparative analysis of regular entry-level hiring postings by major corporations posted on the job platform Catch operated by Jinhaksa between January and November of 2024 and 2025 respectively, the number of postings in 2025 stood at 2,145, down 43% from 3,741 the previous year. Total major corporation entry-level hiring postings, including interns and contract workers, also decreased by 34% over the same period. By industry, construction and civil engineering saw the steepest decline with a 53% drop, followed by sales and distribution (44%), services (38%), manufacturing and production (33%), and banking and finance (31%), all recording drops of over 30% in regular entry-level postings. The analysis also suggested that the contraction of the IT and communications sector was particularly prominent due to the spread of artificial intelligence (AI).

At the time, Kim Jung-hyun, head of Jinhaksa Catch, diagnosed that this decline in regular entry-level hiring is not a short-term contraction, but a signal that companies are shifting toward maintaining existing workforces rather than large-scale open recruitment, and that 2026 is highly likely to be a critical turning point determining whether regular entry-level hiring will expand again or if the current structure will be maintained. In fact, according to an analysis released by the Korea Chamber of Commerce and Industry at the end of March this year, among 144,181 job postings posted on private hiring platforms in the first half of the year, only 2.6% were postings exclusively for new hires, while the proportion stating a preference for experienced workers reached 97.4%. Beyond the absolute volume of postings, the rapid scarcity of "postings that new hires can apply for" is a core interpretation of the perceived deterioration.

Employment Indicators Also Sound Warning Bells… Employed Persons Decrease After 17 Months, Youth Employed Plummet by 250,000

The contraction of job postings is also confirmed in total employment volume indicators. According to the "May 2026 Employment Trends" released by the Statistics Korea on June 11, employed persons aged 15 and older last May stood at 29.12 million, a decrease of 40,000 from the same month last year. The number of employed persons decreased for the first time in 17 months since December 2024. By industry, manufacturing employment decreased by 140,000, widening the scale of decline to more than double the previous month (55,000), and construction also decreased by 43,000, continuing a 24-month consecutive decline. Agriculture, forestry, and fisheries decreased by 121,000, and professional, scientific, and technical services decreased by 89,000 respectively. On the other hand, health and social welfare service industries increased by 212,000, propping up overall employment.

The shock was concentrated on the youth demographic. Employed youth (aged 15–29) in May plummeted by 255,000 compared to the same month last year, recording the largest decline in 5 years and 4 months since January 2021, when the shock of COVID-19 was most severe. The youth employment rate fell 2.4 percentage points to 43.8%, continuing a 24-month downward trend, and the youth unemployment rate rose 0.6 percentage points to 7.2%. The Social Statistics Bureau of Statistics Korea explained that when external factors such as the Middle East war and future uncertainties grow, companies delay or postpone new hiring, and the youth demographic—which must newly enter the labor market—is most directly affected. In addition, Statistics Korea's Korean Statistical Information Service data showed that the number of regular workers in May 2026 stood at 16.74 million, down 7,000 from the same month last year, marking the first decline in about 26 years since December 1999, when the foreign exchange crisis aftermath was felt. This background lends weight to the interpretation that the supply of stable jobs itself is being structurally adjusted.

Examining Generational Structures Reveals a Clearer Shift in the Labor Market's Center of Gravity

Examining generational structures makes the shift in the hiring market's center of gravity even clearer. Employed persons in May increased by 171,000 for those aged 60 and older, 62,000 for those in their 30s, and 25,000 for those in their 50s, but decreased for those in their 20s and 40s. The Korea Employment Information Service also analyzed in an employment trend brief published this year that while employment rates are rising among those in their 30s, 40s, and 60s and older, they are declining among the youth demographic, indicating that South Korea's employment rate structure is shifting from a focus on those in their 30s and 40s in the 2000s to a structure centered on those in their 50s and 60s and older in recent times. This diagnosis points to the entrenchment of a structure where older adults prop up the employment market while the youth demographic experiences delayed labor market entry. Pointing out the need to respond to the non-entry and prolonged economic inactivity of the youth demographic was also raised.

Meanwhile, labor movement at the establishment level has not completely halted. According to the Ministry of Employment and Labor's "May 2026 Establishment Labor Survey," workers at establishments with one or more employees stood at 20.701 million as of the end of May, an increase of 202,000 (1.0%) compared to the same month last year, while hires in May increased by 12.0% to 954,000 and leavers increased by 14.4% to 952,000 respectively. However, looking at the details, regular workers increased by only 61,000 (0.4%), whereas temporary and daily workers increased by 132,000 (6.9%), implying that even if the quantity of employment is maintained, its qualitative composition is being reorganized around short-term and flexible employment. This touches upon the interpretation that job postings have not completely disappeared, but rather the proportion of stable regular job postings has decreased, with short-term and rolling-nature postings filling those spots.

Yet Companies Say "We Have Hiring Plans This Year"... Why It Rebounded to 66.6%

Interestingly, corporate surveys also capture signals in the exact opposite direction. According to the "2026 New Hiring Practice Survey" announced in March this year by the Korea Enterprises Federation following a survey of 500 companies nationwide with 100 or more employees, 66.6% of companies responded that they have plans for new hiring this year, rebounding 5.8 percentage points from 2005 (60.8%). This is the first time the response rate has changed direction after declining for four consecutive years since 2022. However, looking into the details, it is premature to be optimistic. Among companies with hiring plans, 62.2% answered that they would maintain their hiring scale similarly to last year, only 14.1% said they would expand it, and 17.4% were considering reductions.

The "format" of hiring has also fundamentally changed. In the same survey, 54.8% of companies—a majority—answered that they implement only rolling recruitment as a new hiring method, and 41.8% of companies picked the generalization of rolling and regularized recruitment as a major trend this year. As the most important evaluation factor during new hiring, 67.6% of responding companies chose "job-related work experience," while responses stating that educational background is important stood at a mere 5.8%. As major trends in the hiring market, "strengthening job-centric hiring" was overwhelming at 72.2%, and 30.6% of companies pointed to "increased AI utilization in the hiring process." Job groups requiring urgent hiring occupied the top ranks in manufacturing, field, and technical jobs (44.8%) and research and development (34.2%). This means the era when large-scale postings poured out during designated seasons has passed, and the structure has been reorganized into one where postings open and close only for required jobs when needed. Some analyses even evaluate that what disappeared was not "hiring," but rather "the format of open recruitment."

The Variable of AI… Not Just a Phenomenon Unique to South Korea

AI is a variable that is invariably cited as the background for the contraction of job postings. As mentioned earlier, Catch's analysis showed that the decline in entry-level hiring postings by major corporations was particularly prominent in the IT and communications sector in conjunction with the spread of AI. Similar signals are observed at the global level. According to a survey of about 300 chief financial officers (CFOs) by global research firm Gartner, the HR budget growth rate for 2026 is projected to plunge from 2.4% in 2025 to 0.7%, and growth expectations for new talent hiring have also been lowered from 6% to 2%. Gartner diagnosed this as a structural transition from workforce expansion to optimization through automation and AI. J.P. Morgan Research has also released analyses indicating that the adoption of AI is lowering job demand centered on repetitive tasks, affecting the job stability of knowledge-based job groups.

The U.S. labor market is also in a distinct deceleration phase. According to a report released on July 2 by Indeed Hiring Lab, an affiliate of the job platform Indeed, U.S. job growth in May stood at a mere 57,000, falling significantly short of market expectations, while leisure and hospitality decreased by 61,000. The report likened the current U.S. labor market to "slack water" between high and low tides, diagnosing that both employers and job seekers have stopped moving. It was also pointed out that while the unemployment rate edged down slightly to 4.2%, this was due to a decline in labor market participation rather than employment growth. This is why evaluations are emerging that the decrease or stagnation of job postings is not a localized phenomenon unique to South Korea, but a global common trend combining AI transformation and geopolitical uncertainties.

Conclusion: Postings Have 'Changed' Rather Than 'Decreased'… And the Second Half is the Real Test

Let us return to the initial question. Are job postings increasing or decreasing? Data yields a three-pronged answer. First, total job openings and hires increased until the first quarter of this year. Second, however, entry-level postings—especially regular entry-level postings at major corporations—decreased significantly, and experience-preferred postings effectively dominate the market. Third, hiring plans for the second half contracted to the point of falling below worker shortages for the first time since statistics began. In short, the nature of postings has changed rather than the total volume of postings, and the burden of that change is concentrated on the youth demographic in the stage of entering the labor market—this is the summary most consistent with verifiable facts as of July 2026.

The implications for job seekers are clear. Strategies of waiting for regular open recruitment seasons are rapidly losing validity. In a structure where postings open and close at any time, advice is increasing that setting up job alerts on target companies' recruitment pages and platforms in advance, and continuously updating portfolios centered on job keywords that repeatedly appear in postings, determines the likelihood of passing. For companies as well, calculations are necessary regarding what costs the current choice of delaying hiring while recognizing worker shortages will bring to mid-to-long-term skill accumulation and growth potential. The second half of the year, pointed to simultaneously by government statistics and private data, is projected to be a critical turning point determining whether the direction of job postings will end as a temporary adjustment or solidify into a structural contraction.

However, there are points to note. The decrease in hiring plans and the decrease in actual job posting counts do not always correspond on a one-to-one basis, and as the spread of rolling recruitment shortens posting display periods and disperses channels, it is difficult to rule out the possibility that the "shortage of postings" felt by job seekers appears exaggerated compared to the statistical total volume. The fact that the unmet vacancy rate fell to 6.5%, the lowest level since COVID-19, and the Ministry of Employment and Labor's explanation that this reflects aspects of resolving information imbalances in the job opening and hiring process also need to be considered together. The numbers surrounding job postings point to a complex phase where contraction, reorganization, and matching efficiency are progressing simultaneously, and June's employment trends to be announced in the middle of next month along with the actual execution flow of corporate postings in the second half are expected to be key watching points determining the direction of this phase.