A War Expected to Last Four Days Enters Its 35th Day
"It will be over in four days." Such was the optimism circulating in some Washington circles at the outbreak of the war. However, as of April 1, 2026, the conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran has reached its 35th day, with the path to a ceasefire still shrouded in mist.
In the Strait of Hormuz, approximately 3,200 vessels remain stranded according to reports, while international crude oil prices have surged past the $100 per barrel mark from pre-war levels of around $72. No negotiating table has been established, and missiles and drones continue to fly.
How did this war begin, and can it be brought to an end? Furthermore, where does the South Korean economy stand in the face of this massive shockwave?
Background of the War: From Anti-Government Protests to Preemptive Strikes
The direct catalyst for the war was the anti-government protests that erupted in Iran on December 28, 2025. As these protests grew into the largest scale since the Islamic Revolution, Iranian security forces resorted to violent crackdowns, and in January 2026, Iranian security forces killed thousands of protesters during the demonstrations. President Trump used this as a pretext to escalate political and military pressure on the Iranian regime.
On January 24, 2026, the United States dispatched a massive fleet to Iran and imposed sanctions on Iranian oil export vessels.
A diplomatic breakthrough subsequently appeared to be within reach.
On February 25, 2026, ahead of the resumption of the Geneva talks, the Iranian Foreign Minister stated that an agreement with the US to avoid military conflict was "within arm's reach," and just before the airstrikes began on February 27, the Omani Foreign Minister announced that Iran had agreed to cease stockpiling enriched uranium and accept full inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
However, all these diplomatic efforts collapsed in an instant. On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched a preemptive, undeclared strike against Iran under the pretext of supporting anti-government forces within the country and halting its nuclear weapons development, triggering the war.
The airstrike resulted in the death of Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei. President Trump immediately issued an official announcement citing the death of "one of the most vicious figures in history."
Iran retaliated immediately, launching fierce retaliatory attacks targeting Israel and US military bases, injuring at least 15 US service members. At the same time, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) moved to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, escalating the conflict beyond a simple bilateral dispute into a crisis threatening the entire Middle East and global energy supply chains.
The Battlefield Situation: Unexpected Iranian Resistance and the US Dilemma
Early in the war, the US and Israel believed they could neutralize Iran's military capabilities in a short period.
Reality, however, proved otherwise. Originally projected to last about four days, the war has stretched past four weeks. While the US spends approximately $30 billion to $40 billion daily and Israel spends $300 million daily attacking Iran day after day, it is difficult to find commentators who believe the US currently holds the upper hand.
Alex Younger, former chief of the UK intelligence agency MI6, analyzed, "The US lost the initiative to Iran about two weeks ago," adding, "The Iranian regime has demonstrated resilience to a degree that no one anticipated." Despite losing its core leadership, Iran rapidly filled the leadership vacuum. Mojtaba Khamenei was elected Supreme Leader on March 8, 2026, succeeding his father.
The battlefront has expanded. QatarEnergy announced that its Ras Laffan facility was struck by an Iranian-launched drone attack, halting LNG production; the facility accounts for roughly one-fifth of global LNG supply. The Houthi rebels have also joined Iran's side.
Following Lebanon's Hezbollah and Iraqi Shia militias, the Houthis have effectively completed the participation of the Iran-led "Axis of Resistance" on the battlefield. With the Strait of Hormuz blockaded by Iran, concerns are rising that a simultaneous closure of the Red Sea could deal a double shock to the global energy market.
The domestic front in the US is also fractured. Combined with anti-Trump sentiment and opposition to the Iran war, an estimated 9 million people participated in approximately 3,200 recorded rallies nationwide, marking the largest anti-war mobilization in US history. President Trump's public approval rating dropped to a record low of 33%.
Prospects for Ending the War: The Significance of the "April 6 Deadline"
The most closely watched variable at present is the "April 6 deadline" set by President Trump. On March 30, as the Iran war—initially projected by Trump to take four to six weeks—marked its one-month milestone, the White House press secretary failed to provide a definitive end date. On the same day, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that missions related to Iran had "passed the halfway mark," but refrained from offering specific timelines for the end of the conflict.
Negotiation channels are barely alive. The German Foreign Minister stated that the US and Iran are expected to engage in face-to-face negotiations in Pakistan soon, following backchannel indirect talks. President Trump announced that while attacks on Iran are temporarily halted, 15 items are being discussed, including abandoning nuclear weapons, stopping uranium enrichment, exporting nuclear materials, and joint US-Iran management of the Strait of Hormuz.
However, the gap remains wide. The prevailing view is that Iran is unlikely to accept the 15 conditions for a ceasefire demanded by the US. Kim Yul-soo, head of the security strategy office at the Korea Institute for Military Affairs, analyzed, "The US has presented its maximum demands, which is close to a surrender document." Iran's counterproposals are equally unyielding, demanding compensation for war damages, guarantees against recurrence, and recognition of Iranian sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz.
The scenario most realistically viewed as plausible by experts is a "partial agreement." Halting combat operations first while pursuing partial negotiations is emerging as a realistic alternative. Under this framework, Iran would suspend uranium enrichment for a specified period, while the US would gradually ease sanctions and normalize navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. Core disputes including the nuclear program, missile capabilities, and militia support would be deferred to long-term negotiations. However, it must be noted that this scenario remains a possibility rather than a confirmed trajectory for now.
US Vice President JD Vance stated, "President Trump has no interest in being in Iran for another year or two" and that "the US will exit the Iran war soon." Secretary of State Rubio has also claimed that the war will end "in weeks, not months." While these statements are read as signals of an unwillingness to engage in a protracted war, the Iranian side continues to deny official negotiations, meaning premature optimism is unwarranted.
Ultimately, this is the inflection point where a dramatic resolution must be reached within the early April deadline, or the parties will face the crossroads of further escalation.
Global Macroeconomic Shocks: Energy, Inflation, and Finance
The shockwaves this war has inflicted on the global economy are already visible. Energy is the core of the crisis.
International crude oil prices, based on Dubai crude, surged by over 40% from approximately $72 per barrel prior to the war to around $103. This carries implications beyond mere numbers. The Strait of Hormuz is a vital artery through which approximately 20% of global crude oil traffic flows.
European gas benchmark Dutch TTF front-month futures prices spiked by 46% from the previous trading day at one point, marking the largest increase since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Deloitte highlighted supply chain instability, surging energy prices, and geopolitical fragmentation as major latent risks in its '2026 Global Economic Outlook,' and this year those ominous predictions have once again materialized. The sudden airstrikes by the US and Israel drove energy prices up, equity prices down, and fueled concurrent rallies in the US dollar and precious metals.
The Trump administration is reportedly examining the economic impact should oil prices spike to $200 per barrel due to the continuation of the war. While this is strictly a measure to prepare for a worst-case scenario, oil at $200 would mark the highest adjusted rate of inflation since just before the 2008 global financial crisis.
Official forecasts from the international community have also darkened rapidly. In its 'Interim Economic Outlook' released on March 26, the OECD substantially revised upward its inflation forecast for G20 nations in 2026 by 1.2 percentage points, from the previous 2.8% to 4.0%, reflecting rising energy prices. However, this forecast is premised on the technical assumption that energy prices will gradually decline past the middle of the year, meaning figures are subject to change depending on how the war unfolds.
Impact on the South Korean Economy: The Naked Truth of Structural Vulnerability
South Korea, with its high dependence on energy imports and export-driven economic structure, is particularly vulnerable to this shock. The impacts currently manifesting can be categorized into four major areas.