Prolonged Iran War: Why Crude Oil Securitization Doesn't Mean Eased Corporate Burdens

When the Iran war is prolonged, the more enduring shock to the South Korean economy and businesses lies not merely in crude oil shortages, but in the convergence of rising procurement costs, delivery uncertainties, and financial pressures. Even if immediate crude oil needs are secured, profitability and cash flow can deteriorate if companies bring in supplies at high costs, sell late, and receive payments later. However, the outcome varies depending on how effectively semiconductor exports, exchange rates, and government supply-demand responses absorb the shock, meaning it cannot be concluded that all industries will simultaneously experience a contraction or that the Korean won will unilaterally weaken. Securing Crude Oil and Stabilizing Costs Are Different Matters Data related to petroleum price ceilings released by the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy on October 16, 2026, contai…