GLOBAL ECONOMY

Rate Cuts Are Over, Hikes Are Next: How the Warsh Fed Reversed the Course of Interest Rates

At its first FOMC meeting under the Warsh regime, the Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest rate frozen at 3.50–3.75% for the fourth consecutive time. However, the dot plot signaled the possibility of a rate hike within the year, effectively declaring the end of the easing cycle. International oil prices have surged due to military conflicts between the U.S. and Iran in the Middle East, and May inflation indicators rose to the low-4% range, signaling a re-acceleration of inflation. U.S. employment indicators remained robust in May with 150,000 to 200,000 job additions and an unemployment rate in the low-to-mid 4% range, weakening the justification for rate cuts with this 'high inflation and solid employment' combination. In South Korea, amid an environment of a 2.50% base rate, a won-dollar exchange rate of 1,530–1,560 won, and 3.2% consumer inflation, the Bank of Korea's monetary policy dilemma is deepening as it must simultaneously account for the exchange rate, inflation, and household debt. U.S. interest rates are entering a phase shifting from 'higher for longer' to simply 'higher,' making it time for businesses and investors to redesign their foreign exchange hedging, financing, and portfolio strategies based on scenario-driven response systems rather than relying on 'rate cuts within the year.'